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- They believed that the average was a force of nature which had to correct all deviations. In fact, the average is a statistical result, which must be calculated from a very large sample to be representative. Twenty-six spins is not a large sample at all.
- They had mistaken the average for statistical probability. A probability of 50% doesn’t mean that in a sample of 100 spins you’ll get exactly 50 reds and 50 blacks. It simply means that for every next spin you have a 50/50 chance of red vs black.
- They had overestimated sample size. How large is 26 compared to thousands of spins daily? Large deviations from the average are not that uncommon in small samples. Don’t expect them to be representative of the entire population.
- They had underestimated the independence of future spins from past spins. Simply put, they forgot that the wheel has no memory.
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